Methodology

This app evaluates every legal 2-card discard from a 6-card hand and ranks choices by expected value (EV).

1. Enumerate all options

For each hand, there are 15 possible discards. For each discard, the app keeps the remaining 4-card hand and evaluates that choice.

2. Compute hand EV exactly

For each keep/discard choice, the app scores the retained hand against all 46 legal cut cards and averages the result.

3. Estimate crib EV

Crib contribution comes from a precomputed toss table built by simulation. For each possible 2-card discard pair, we repeatedly deal opponent toss cards and a cut card, score the resulting crib, and average the score.

Example table entry: AD-AH: {"ev_my_crib": 5.448, "ev_opp_crib": 5.448}

View the current data file: crib_toss_table.json.

4. Combine EV by crib ownership

• If it is your crib: total EV = hand EV + crib EV.
• If it is opponent crib: total EV = hand EV - crib EV.

5. Opponent-profile statistics

The app also uses an opponent-discard profile (`opponent_stats.json`) derived from repeated simulated hands. Those counts are converted into weighted probabilities for likely opponent rank-pair tosses.

6. Compare your choice to optimal

Your submitted discard is ranked against all 15 options. The app reports your rank and EV gap from the best play.

Reference and Credit

The discard-table workflow is informed by Liam Brown's cribbage resources: https://cliambrown.com/cribbage/.